LOVERACING.NZ Preview - Tauranga 18 November

Mitch Davis
17 November 2023

Meeting Overview

Going: Soft 5 (17/11)

Rail: Out 3m

The track is currently a Soft5 at time of writing on Friday morning, however, with persistent showers forecasted for the next 48 hours, I will be working of the expectation that the track will be in the Soft7-Heavy8 range. The rail was in the true position at the last meeting here on 4th November, with the rail now going out 3m for Saturday’s meeting.

Best Bet

Race 6 - #2 MERCURIAL (Win)

The $4.20 about Mercurial looks well over the odds in this race for mine. He should be nearing peak fitness now 4th up, with the blinkers going on for the first time and the in-form Sam Spratt staying aboard. The expected easing of track conditions won’t hinder Mercurial’s chances as much as other key chances in this race, with the race favourite, Desert Lightning having not been exposed to anything worse than a Soft5.

Next Best Bet

Race 8 - #14 LIVID SKY (Win)

Racing out of her age group/sex for the first time here is the only reason I could see as to why Livid Sky isn’t odds-on in this race. Her improvement curve across her first three starts has been exceptional, where she was only beaten 2.6L in the Gr.2 Jamieson Park Soliloquy Stakes last start. The form out of that race has already been franked, with Glamour Tycoon (who beat Livid Sky home by 0.5L) clearing her maiden in a canter at Ruakaka earlier this week. Livid Sky’s only career victory came here on a Soft7, and the way she continues to improve I expect her to be very hard to beat

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