Meeting Overview: 

Going: Good4 (as at 15/12)

Rail: Out 3m

With no rain and strong winds during the week, they have applied irrigation all through the week, including again today (Friday). The track is currently rated a Good4, however, with 12mm of irrigation overnight and the 3mm of irrigation on Friday morning, I expect to see a Soft5 by Friday afternoon.

The forecast is fine for the rest of Friday and through Saturday, so we will likely see the track improve back to a Good4 for race day. The rail will be out 3m following our last meeting two weeks ago where the rail was in the True position and horses tended to stick to the inside, therefore, we will be racing on a fresh surface on Saturday. With a rail out, I suspect this may leave a slight advantage to runners on speed.

Best Bet

Race 8 - #4 DIONYSUS (Win)

I have had an eye on him all prep. A cup winner last prep and runner-up in this race last year, he had progressed well with each run to date. When I saw the barrier draw early this week, I was keen to be with him and the early market support tells me, I was not the only one. He comes into this with a good 2400m record and on the minimum of 53kgs. He now meets Aromatic 1kg better off than last start and I suspect we will see him nearing his best on Saturday. Given his low draw, I don’t think he will be getting too far off the speed, despite the small field. Look for him to build into a strong run late.

Next Bet

Race 5 - #6 ACADEMY AWARD (Win)

While she doesn’t win all that often (18: 1-6-3-3), she consistently runs a bold race. She has arguably been unlucky not to win any of her last three starts and comes into Saturday in great form. She launched hard late last start against the pattern of the day and was only beaten a small margin. From her draw she can settle in a stalking position just off the front markers and the 1300m should suit her ideally, as it is the trip, she scored her sole race win. While this is a competitive field, she presents with the best form in the race and deserves her spot at the top of the market.

Race 2 - #4 QUINTESSA (Win)

I could regret it, but I am taking on the hot pot and reigning NZ champion 2YO, Tokyo Tycoon. It’s his stable mate, Quintessa, who I will be backing. She is 3 from 3 unbeaten and her strong win last time we saw her in the Group 3 Gold Trail Stakes is what draws me to her. She drew the outside on that occasion and was caught wide throughout. Once she was presented in the straight that day, she really flattened out and let rip. From the draw, I would ideally like to see her settle a pair handier than Tokyo Tycoon and my concern is she may step a little slow and end up 3 back on the fence inside him. If Warren Kennedy is able to get her out of the barriers and into a nice spot, I am happier to be with her at $3.50 than her stablemate at an odds-on quote.

Value Bet

Race 3 - #5 IMPREVU (Each Way)

This is a nice race with some handy types for the grade, but I have a bit of time for Imprevu. Four starts back she was beating Ziala, here at Te Rapa and she lines up in stakes company again tomorrow. She has drawn nicely for Joe Doyle, and I can see the pair get a nice sit in behind the leaders. Her best is enough to see her win this and definitely enough to convince me to be with her at a nice each way quote of $7/$2.50.