Meeting Overview: 

Going: Soft5 (as at 08/12)

Rail: True

A few days of good weather following plenty of rain and a small amount of irrigation early in the week has seen the track go from a Heavy 8 to a Soft 5. With continued sunshine between now and race day, a Soft 5 to Good 4 is expected. Unsurprisingly the rail is in the true position for the Group 1 meeting. We saw two meetings at Trentham last month, with the rail being out 6m on 17 November and in the true position on 4 November. Both those meetings were on rain affected tracks, but horses were winning from all positions. I suspect this track will play very fairly and we will see all horses get their chance.

Best Bet

Race 5 - #7 MANIFIQUE (Win)

You would be hard pressed to find a better staying pedigree in New Zealand and I think it’s fair to say, this 5YO mare has continued to progress through the grades in her short career, especially when she has got out to a staying trip. She was game as ever when fresh up over the 1600m here two starts back and then went on to secure an easy win last start over 2000m at New Plymouth. With course and distance stats that are hard to ignore and the 54kg and Michael McNab on her back, it’s not hard to see why she is my best of the day. She maps exceptionally well in this and her consistency, coupled with the early market support tells me she will be awfully hard to hold out in this event.

Next Bet

Race 1 - #3 FASHION ICON (Win)

It is just the 6 runners here, but all bring strong form to the race. I was really taken by the way this filly attacked the line when she got clear air at this venue last start. Not only did she have to navigate traffic and chase hard, but she did also it whilst beating the older horses in Rating 65 grade, now back against her own age group here she commands plenty of respect. The booking of Michael McNab is a big plus and from gate 2, he should be able ride a tactical race and give her every chance. The rise to 1400m also should be no concern, looking at the way she has attacked the line in both her wins.

Group 1 TAB Classic Bet

DESERT LIGHTNING (Top 4)

Always an exciting race on the calendar, the newly updated TAB Classic has drawn a large and deep field of milers. With this though comes the complexity of finding value. Arguably one of the top 5 3YO’s from last seasons outstanding crop, Desert Lighting announced his return this season in fashion with a cruisy win in an Open 1200m race at Pukekohe. Having his first look at a Heavy track last start, he was wide throughout, carried a big weight and never looked comfortable on the going, but still managed a brave 3^rd. His wide draw here is a concern, but the big roomy Trentham track should aid this and his best sees him run top 4 in this field all day long.