Meeting Overview:

Going: Soft6 (as at 03/11)

Rail: True 

Currently rated a Soft6 with the rail in the true position. The past two meetings here have seen the rail out 4m (04/10) & 7m (18/10) so we will have a fresh strip of ground that hasn’t been raced on since 23^rd September. Unfortunately, the weather gods don’t look to want to play ball here and there is a decent amount of rain forecast to fall today, which will ultimately see this track downgraded and likely end up in the Heavy 8/9 range. Thus, I am looking for Heavy track form, more specifically that of a holding heavy as the rain appears to be gone by Saturday and that could leave us with a tricky track for punters.

Best Bet

Race 2 - #4 ONEIRA (Win)

She is a deserving favourite here. From just 4 starts she is yet to finish further back than 4^th and had excuses that day. Her last two outings have seen her finish within a length of smart filly Quintessa on both occasions, the most recent a very brave 3^rd in the Group 3 Gold Trail Stakes. The rain won’t be an issue for her, and I am not worried about the wide draw, she will have the early speed to cross the small field and find a nice handy spot. Should the rain forecast be correct, it wouldn’t also surprise me to see some of her main rival’s scratch from this event. I suggest taking the $2 on offer early, as she will start in the red.

Next Bet

Race 4 - #7 MISTER MEANER (Each Way)

He went to the races off the back of a nice trial win when debuting here on 18 October and it’s safe to say nothing went his way that day. Forced to be restrained after the start he went back and looked to come around them in to the straight but couldn’t obtain clear running. Ashvin Goindasamy then angled him back inside and he dashed home in smart fashion for an unlucky 5^th. With scratchings, I suspect he will jump from around barrier 8 which should give him a chance to find a nice spot in the run. With a touch of luck, I think he can run in to the pointy end of the finish here. This is another race where I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of his key rivals scratched due to the rain, should the forecast be correct. 

Value Bet

Race 8 - #5 CORK (Each Way)

This is an open race and it’s the course specialist I think who represents value here. Cork is unbeaten (3 from 3) at Tauranga and her one run over 2100m came here resulting in a win. She drops back from stakes company and although it doesn’t read that well, finishing 7 lengths off Legarto & Aquacade and 3 lengths from La Crique is enough to put her right in this. While her peak performance this prep in thew Winter Cup (2^nd) has her well on top of this field. If the rain arrives and with a hungry Michael McNab on board, the $6 & $2.30 currently on offer is where I will be shopping.