Meeting Overview:

Going: Soft 5 (as at 22/09)

Rail: True

The track is currently rated a Soft 5 at time of writing this preview, with no rain falling in the 7 days prior. However, the forecast shows rain developing overnight and continue to fall during race day. The concern I have is if, and how much rain arrives, this meeting could change complexion quickly. With the inclement weather, I’m expecting the track will start to cut out and riders to make wider runs as the day progresses.

Best Bet

Race 7 - #5 CASINO PRINCESS (Win)

She is an exciting galloper from the Cliff Goss stable and I have been waiting to see her line up again after a bold run fresh up. She is piecing together a record of a good horse, and the key to that seems to be the time she has been given and her getting a chance to get her toe in to the ground. As mentioned above, if the rain does arrive, I expect to see her price tumble in from the opening quote of $2.20. There appears to be a lack of pace in the race on paper, which is a slight concern given her ‘get back’ racing style, but I think with the 2kg claim and the nice draw in gate 5, she has the ability to negate this and still score.

Next Best

Race 5 - #3 POSER (Win)

You would be hard pressed to find a horse in New Zealand who has been more consistent in their past nine starts than Poser, who has produced 5 wins and 3 minor placings from those races. Another runner who will benefit from the rain arriving, Poser should be able to get a cosy run from gate 1 and with a bit of speed in the small field, I expect to see her settle in midfield of the 7 runners. I think she has the class edge on this field and at the opening price of $2.50, I suggest betting early because I can’t see her drifting in this field, especially if the rain does come.

Value Bet

Race 2 - #2 HIGHLIGHTER (Each Way)

A tricky race to dissect, but if the forecast is right and the rain arrives, it will aid Highlighters chances big time. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of the horses at the top of this market who are resuming scratch, should the rain come. IF and it is a big if, then I think Highlighter comes right into the race. With the TAB No Deductions promotion in place and at her opening price of $9/$2.80, I am willing to back her early for a small amount each way in the hope that the forecast is correct, and this race does change complexion at scratching time.