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LOVERACING.NZ Preview - Taupo 15 September
Meeting Overview:
Going: Good4
Rail: Out 2m
This is the first usage of the Taupo track since 23rd August (Going: Soft7, Rail: True), where for the most part, runners struggled to make up any ground on the leaders early in the day. I would be surprised if this wasn’t the case for Friday’s meeting also, with the track being faster and the rail going out 2m. I expect those handy to the speed and on the rail will be awfully hard to catch down the 320m Taupo straight.
Best Bet
Race 6 - #16 MOLLY BLOOM (Win)
Her trial leading into this resuming run was quiet yet brilliant, where she coasted to the line under a hold. She arguably should have won on debut, as her momentum was hampered late in the home straight when storming home. Given she is currently the $8.00 second favourite for the Gr.1 Barneswood Farm 51st New Zealand 1000 Guineas in November, I expect her to be accounting for this maiden field first-up. Very happy to back Molly Bloom to win at the $1.90 currently available, I had her marked the $1.50 favourite here.
Next Best Bet
Race 5 - #2 ENTHUSIASTIC (Each Way)
3YO War Decree gelding who comes into this off the back of a smart trial win in August at Cambridge Synthetic, which was comfortably the quickest 950m trial of that day. The key to his chances will be the first 50m, as if he can lead or land a prominent position early, I expect he will take plenty of running down. I had him priced as a $4.50 second favourite in this field, therefore happy to back him each way at the $7.50/$2.10 currently available.
Value Bet
Race 1 - #10 MISAPPROPRIATE (Each Way)
The early market support and decision from Ross McCarroll to head into this 1800m contest off the back of a 10-week break is a strong lead for mine. From the inside gate, I expect Craig Grylls will try and hold the lead with Misappropriate, which I am expecting will be the place to be early in the day. Her last start 3rd at Rotorua was promising, where Misappropriate looked to be travelling like the winner until tiring late over the 1950 on the Heavy10. This isn’t an overly strong maiden contest, therefore I am more than happy to have an each way play at the $10/$2.70.
