Best Bet

Race 8 - #15 THE FIRST LINK (WIN)

His 1^st up run was a pass mark, where he was seen doing his best work over the final 100m and through the line. Staying at 1400m 2^nd up looks ideal, with The First Link having been seen to perform very well in this grade over this trip in the Heavy10 conditions in the past. Cameron Lammas sticks, whilst also getting in 0.5kg lighter after dropping a rating point from the 1^st up effort. If he’s anywhere near peak fitness, he should be right in the thick of it in what looks a winnable race for him here.

Value Bet

Race 4 - #13 BROOKBOURNE (EACH WAY)

The likely very heavy conditions bring this stayer right into contention 2^nd up over the 1560m – a distance that would typically be well short of his ideal trip. His 1^st up run over 1400m was much better than it looked on paper, where he got back and was under a ride a long way out, before rallying hard down the outer late to record the fastest closing 200m of the race. Should it become more of a staying test at Rotorua in the conditions, Brookbourne looks a great each way play at double figure odds.

FEATURE RACE PREVIEW

Race 5 – Campbell Infrastructure Rotorua Cup (Listed)

Summary

Deep field of stayers tackling the 2200m, in what will likely prove to be a survival of the fittest in the testing conditions. The pace in the race doesn’t look overly strong, with The Mayor and Senor Uno looking the likely leaders from their low gates. The market for the race shows how wide open the race is, with Enchanted Elle heading the market as a loose favourite for the race.

Betting Strategy

#3 HAPPY STAR (EACH WAY)

I will only be having a small each way play on Happy Star in what is a very open race. He is coming into this 3^rd up off the back of his credible 3^rd in the Anzac Mile, which should have him close to his peak for this 2200m assignment. I expect he’ll handle the conditions better than most in this field, with the wide gate (15) ensuring he is out in the better part of the track.

Race 7 – Rotorua ITM Stakes (Group 3)

Summary

Another very competitive lineup, this time for the fillies and mares over the 1400m with black type on offer. Come this point of the day, it’s very likely that riders will be looking to stay a few lanes off the rail, looking for the outside rail down the straight. I expect the tempo will be genuine, with the likes of Wessex, Sassy Merlot and Sweetjineen firing forward early. The market has Sumi as the early favourite, off the back of her gallant 2^nd at Te Rapa last start.

Betting Strategy

#1 OSELETA (EACH WAY)

I’m willing to take a chance on the top-rated mare in this field, who has been very sluggish out of the barriers of late, which does make her somewhat of a risky proposition. The wide draw and rain-effected going should aid her chances here, in what looks a very winnable race with her ‘A game’. She is a risk, but at the decent each way odds I’ll be having a small play on her.