Best Bet

Race 2 - #6 LURID (WIN)

Despite being a rating 62 galloper, I’m of the opinion he brings far superior form into this race, as he now steps away from Saturday grade racing into what looks a weaker R75 2100m contest. Having carried 59kg his last few runs, he won’t know himself with 55kg on his back. I expect him to lap up the conditions and prove himself to be a level above his opposition here.

Value Bet

Race 5 - #2 LINKIN PARK (EACH WAY)

His race-day efforts haven’t exactly been anything to write home about, having run last in both starts to date and being beaten by an aggregate margin of 27L. The key here for mine is the Heavy10 surface, as both career runs have been on synthetic and Soft5 conditions respectively. The trial he won prior to his first-up run this preparation, was on a Heavy9 at Rotorua, where he ran the fastest 1000m trial time of the day there. Lynsey Satherley rode him that day, now rides on race-day, expecting we’ll see a positive ride to give him every chance to turn his form around.

Feature Race Preview

Race 7 – Manawatu ITM ANZAC Mile

Key Runners

#1 KICK ON

#3 SEAJETZ

#6 HAPPY STAR

#7 MILLEFIORI

Summary

A very open contest here over the mile at Listed level. The early speed in the race will likely come from #10 TOWN CRYER, who should have the early toe to cross from her middle barrier and dictate from the front. The market suggests this will be a very competitive race, with 8/9 runners currently sitting <$10 in the betting.

Betting Strategy

Back (EACH WAY) - #3 SEAJETZ

Although his first-up run wasn’t flattering to the eye, Seajetz ran back-to-back 10.78s furlongs between the 600m-400m and the 400m-200m. Albeit a margin ahead of him, White Noise & Habana have since quinellaed the Group 3 Manco Easter Handicap this weekend. Seajetz second-up record is brilliant, having won 3/3. All 7 career victories have also come on tracks rated Soft-Heavy. I expect him to have taken natural improvement from that first-up performance, the step up to the mile will suit also. My main concern is where he ends up from the low gate (2), as I imagine the rail won’t be the place to be on a Heavy10 track at this point of the day.