Best Bet

Race 5 #2 PENVOSE LAD

He was extremely tough on debut last time out and went down a small margin of ½ neck. While I cannot take anything away from the favourite CU CHULAINN who has recorded 2 wins from 2 starts to date and looks very smart, I think #2 PENVOSE LAD will take a lot of improvement from that debut run and actually meets the favourite 2kg better off at the weights. The wet track will be the query for all of these, but I am confident PENVOSE LAD will handle it, based on what we saw from him last start.

Value Bet

Race 6 - #1 LOUIE LOUIE

An interesting runner here, #1 LOUIE LOUIE hasn’t been seen since October 2022. Whilst CONOR O’CEIRIN and HENRY HUBBER are the form horses of the race, I think LOUIE LOUIE is over the odds. He has a strong fresh record, having never run out of the top 4 when resuming after a 90-day break and he boasts positive wet track stats. He’s a pretty consistent galloper and with a 3kg claim it makes him an attractive each way spruik for me. 

 

FEATURE RACE PREVIEW

Race 8 - NEW ZEALAND BLOODSTOCK WARSTEP STAKES (LISTED)

Key Runners

#2 LUELLA CRISTINA

#3 MISS LAYLA

#1 INFLAMED

Summary

A handy field of 3YO fillies do battle here and a few are stepping out to the 2000m for the first time. With a number of these likely to end up rolling forward to get handy spots in the run, the speed could be genuine. I expect to see #3 MISS LAYLA attempt to lead once again, as she did when stunning them here last start over 1600m. #2 LUELLA CRISTINA can utilise the nice draw of 5 and settle inside the first 6 in the run with cover.

Betting Strategy

Back (Win) - #2 LUELLA CRISTINA

She was beaten last start, but she was game when closing strong late here over 1600m. I am concerned with how wet the track could get for her, but I just can’t go past her record to date. She brings phenomenal group race form, with a group 1 placing in the Levin Classic. Her dam was a world class stayer and that should hold her in good stead for her first attempt at 2000m. Her best is far superior to the rest of this field.

Back (Place) - #1 INFLAMED

Noting that we will be on a wet track, and it will become a real staying test for these fillies, I am not willing to let #1 INFLAMED go around without having a place play on her. She was too strong when last presented over 1600m against the older horses and the key there was how she handled the Heavy track. Her pedigree suggests 2000m will be right up her alley and I think even from the wide draw, she maps to get a spot outside the speed and back against her own age and gender here, the rise to 2000m will be perfect.

 

Race 9 - COCA-COLA CANTERBURY GOLD CUP (GROUP 3)

Key Runners

#1 TIMES TICKING

#10 ASATHOUGHT

#4 PLATINUM INVADOR

Summary

The speed here looks moderate, with #8 DEELS DONE likely to lead from a low draw. Expect to see LIVE DRAMA, VERNANME & SECOND THOUGHT all track across and trail the speed. #1 TIMES TICKING is a deserved race favourite and from gate 10 looks like he will slot in somewhere around mid-field, hopefully with some cover.

Betting Strategy

Back (Win) - #1 TIMES TICKING

Putting it simply, he is a high-class galloper and has the ability to win this. He was super tough when winning last start at Riccarton under a big weight and will have to reproduce that here, but he actually drops 1kg and his heavy track record is first class. The 2000m is the query, but he is such a tough customer, he will just keep finding to the line.

Back (Top 4) - #6 EXCHANGE

The son of GHIBELLINES will get back in this field and will end up tucked away on the rail from gate 4. He can produce a fast finish and I was taken by the way he kept finding the line last start on a Heavy track over the 2147m. He will be rock hard fit, and I think with the rain about, it might become a genuine survival of the fittest, of which, I can’t let him go around without a small top 4 play at that price.