Best Bets

Race 2 - #1 FREEZE FRAME

Race 4 - #1 TOKYO TYCOON

Race 6 - #8 SASSY MERLOT

Race 7 - #6 ZOURION

 

Value Bet

Race 8 - #3 THE MAYOR

 

FEATURE RACE PREVIEW

Race 4 – FAIRVIEW MATAMATA SLIPPER (Group 3)

Key Runners

#1 TOKYO TYCOON

#2 TROBRIAND

#6 SAKO

Summary

Only a small field of 2yo colts & geldings engaged in this Group 3 contest over 1200m. Te Akau have quinellaed this race three of the last four years, with the market suggesting this trend will likely continue with top 2yo’s, #1 TOKYO TYCOON & #2 TROBRIAND, dominating the betting. Being a small field of 2yo’s on a rain-affected track, I would suggest the tempo of the race will only be moderate. TROBRIAND & #6 SAKO look to be the early leaders, with the unbeaten TOKYO TYCOON likely settling in the last pair from the outside gate. The big question mark for all of these runners is how they will handle the likely testing conditions that we may see on Saturday.

Betting Strategy

Back (Win) - #1 TOKYO TYCOON

Winner of the 2yo Karaka Million at his latest start, #1 TOKYO TYCOON produced one of the most impressive performances we’ve seen by any horse in NZ this season. After missing the kick, he weaved through the capacity field to salute, reeling off the fastest closing 800m, 600m, 400m and 200m splits of the race. Expecting similar tactics here from the outside gate, where he’ll be looking to keep his powder dry before producing his devastating turn of foot over the latter stages. Would be a fitting send-off for Craig Zackey, in what will be his last race-day here in New Zealand before returning to South Africa next week. 

 

Race 7 – J SWAP CONTRACTORS MATAMATA BREEDER'S STAKES (Group 2)

Key Runners

#1 ULANOVA

#6 ZOURION

#7 SHOES

Summary

A competitive lineup of 2yo fillies searching for all important black-type here over 1200m. Being late on in the day, the big question mark will again be the state of the track should the expected rain arrive. Unlike the 2yo contest for the colts and geldings, this race looks to have plenty of speed engaged, with #1 ULANOVA, #2 SKY ON FIRE, #4 RUBICON CROSSING, #6 ZOURION and #7 SHOES all having shown intent to be on the speed in past performances. Similar to the previous 2yo contest, the market is headlined by two runners, those being ULANOVA & ZOURION.

Betting Strategy

Back (Win) - #6 ZOURION

#6 ZOURION was a filly who trialed up ultra-impressively prior to her debut win at Taupo earlier this month. Despite missing the kick on debut, she was able to recover and hold the lead, before coming away late. Big step up here to Group 2 level, however, she looks a filly with plenty of upside who can improve again heading into this.

I will be against the favourite, #1 ULANOVA. To the eye, her latest victory was enormous at New Plymouth, when bolting in by 6.8L over 1200m. The big query on this performance is how it was reflected on the clock. Her closing 600m in 35.33 was the fastest in her race yet was significantly slower than the fastest closing 600m in any other contest on the day.

 

Race 8 – MATAMATA VETERINARY SERVICES KAIMAI STAKES (Listed)

Key Runners

#3 THE MAYOR

#4 BELLE EN ROUGE

#7 SAGUNTO

Summary

A very competitive field assembled over the 2000m journey, with many of the key chances in the race lacking consistency in their recent form. The speed in the race will almost certainly come from #7 SAGUNTO, who will likely find the front from his wide gate and run along as he pleases. #2 COLORADO STAR & #10 NO LOITERING will also be handy to the speed, ensuring there is a genuine tempo throughout.

Betting Strategy

Back (Each Way) - #3 THE MAYOR

Although the last time he won a race was at Flemington over 3 years ago, #3 THE MAYOR looks to have found a suitable race to break the drought. He returns to his local track, where has won twice from three attempts, at a distance (2000m) which looks to be his sweet spot. He was tasked with the heavy lifting, dragging the field up to tearaway leader #7 SAGUNTO last time they met and prior to that was seen running a distant 4th in the Group One Cambridge Stud Zabeel Classic. The key for this horse will be landing a spot handy to the speed without doing too much work from the middle gate. He has shown he is a talented horse on his day, having run subsequent G1 winner Defibrillate to a neck four starts back at Pukekohe over 2050m. Will be a case of crossing your fingers and hoping the best version of him shows up, but you’re getting the right price to find out.