Best Bets

Race 1 #12 – VERISMO

Race 7 #13 – TOKO ONO

Race 10 #5 – GRACE ‘N’ GLORY

 

Value Bet

Race 2 #5 – I’M ON FIRE

 

Race 1 - AUTOBAHN CAFÉ 2100

Key Runners

#1 TRIPLE MONEY

#6 MEGA MOGUL

#11 BRIDGERTON

#12 VERISMO

Summary

Of the two maiden 2100m races, this race appears to have more early speed. #1 TRIPLE MONEY has the wide draw to overcome but now boasts five placings from just the six starts. He is a runner who will look to navigate a path toward the front of the field early from the wide draw and he will need some luck to do so. His form has been solid lately and a win feels like it is just around the corner for the 4-year-old son of Pins.

Another who will look to forge a path forward early in this event is #6 MEGA MOGUL from Barrier 1. He’s a talented 3YO who has shown ability in his 5-start career. He appears to be enjoying racing over the staying trips and the barrier is a big plus in this. He was unlucky to run in to a smart horse last start when finishing 2nd to Val Di Zoldo.

One horse who maps especially well in this event is #11 BRIDGERTON. Gate 7 looks ideal for her to find a nice spot behind the speed with cover. She was a game 2nd in behind the talented 3YO Filly Safura last start and a repeat of that run would put her near the top of this field. The 2100m looks to be ideal for her also.

One runner in this who seems to be getting closer to a win with each start at the moment is #12 VERISMO. She has continued to progress with each run. With a 3rd behind Derby hopeful Mark Twain and a 2nd to talented 3YO filly Kahma Suitsya in her last two outings, I feel she is trending in the right direction. The barrier is a little sticky but her get-back racing pattern should negate this and the 2100m looks ideal.

Betting Strategy

Back (Win) - #12 VERISMO

 

Race 2 - MAJESTIC HORSE FLOATS 2100

Key Runners

#5 I’M ON FIRE

#6 HASSTOBEAWINNER

#7 ARKADUS

Summary

Based on his earlier runs, I thought #5 I’M ON FIRE would have cleared maiden ranks before now. However, the 2100m has always looked like his sweet spot and his last two starts suggest he is getting to an ideal distance range. He finds an even bunch of horses here and from gate 6, he should have no issue sliding forward and setting up in a nice spot just off the lead. The key speed influence in this race is #19 HIBERRY who is still on the ballot in both of the first two races. If Hiberry runs in this, it will give I’m On Fire a chance to camp just off the lead.

The rise to 2100m should suit #6 HASSTOBEAWINNER, who was closing steadily when finishing 3rd last start. He does have a tricky draw to get past, from barrier 12 there will be limited options. If Vinnie Colgan can get some cover early, he should be finding the line nicely in the closing stages.

Based on breeding alone, #7 ARKADUS is a horse who seems destined to stay since day one. Out of the good staying mare Fanatic, the 2100m will be a welcome challenge for him. He is a horse who has improved with each run to date and as he has progressed up in trip. He will get back in the early stages, but the long Pukekohe straight will give him every opportunity to get in to top gear. He is the runner you know will keep closing strongly the longer they run.

Betting Strategy

Back (Win) - #5 I’M ON FIRE

Back (Place) - #7 ARKADUS

 

Meeting Information: https://loveracing.nz/RaceInfo/39163/Meeting-News-Article.aspx 

Fields & Form: https://loveracing.nz/RaceInfo/51405/Meeting-Overview.aspx