BEST BETS 
Race 2 #1 – COGNITO 
Race 5 #2 – WAITAK 
Race 6 #12 – KARMAN LINE 

VALUE BET 
Race 1 #2 – PERENARA 

 

 

Key Runners
#1 DESERT LIGHTNING
#2 WAITAK
#4 LOOSESPENDER

Summary
On paper, this race has a serious lack of early speed. With the one horse who is likely to lead being
the emergency #15 ORSOME DUDE. If he does not gain a start, then it looks likely that #4
LOOSESPENDER, the Waikato Guineas winner, will have his chance to control the tempo. He will be
hoping the track remains a Soft surface. A repeat performance of his last start would see him going
close once again here.

The form surrounding #1 DESERT LIGHTNING is some of the best form in New Zealand currently,
with recent placings behind PROWESS, WILD NIGHT, PIER and SACRED SATONO this prep. He looks
the class horse of this field, but with his get back racing pattern and barrier 4, he will need luck to be
winning. The big questions for him remain the staying trip and the softer footing.
Perhaps one of the best runs out of the Waikato Guineas was #2 WAITAK, it ended up being a
strange run for him as he drew wide and was posted early and actually ended up ducking up the rail
in the straight, which was probably the worst part of the track by that point in the day. He’s come up
with a nice gate for this and should have no issue finding a spot where he likes around mid-field with

cover.

Betting Strategy
Back (Win) - #2 WAITAK
I think the race sets up really nicely for him from that draw and we know he will stay, the conditions
underfoot are no issue either. If he can deliver a performance like he did last start, with luck in the
running, he can win this for sure.

 

Back (Top 4) - #11 PHANTOM DRAGON
A sneaky throw at one here at odds for a top 4 finish. The form surrounding him has been franked
and the way he found the line last start suggests he will relish the 2100m of this event. Gate 6 will
see him find a nice position around mid-field and the long Pukekohe straight will give him every
chance to hit top gear.

Key Runners
#4 DIONYSUS
#9 AQUACADE
#12 CONTEMPLATION

Summary
The key lead up to next months Group 2 Auckland Cup, the Avondale Cup has served up a strong
group of developing stayers. With the 4 & 5YO’s dominating this market. While there appear to be a
number of horses who will be keen to lock in spots near the front early, I don’t suspect there will be
too much speed in the race. #14 YOULEDO is the likely leader with #7 ZEE FALLS & #12
CONTEMPLATION expected to take a camp off him. A horse that has just kept on improving with
every run as he has matured, #4 DIONYSUS, comes in to this with a firm eye on the Auckland Cup. A
winner of the Queen Elizabeth Cup on New Year’s Day, he backed up that performance with a strong
3rd under 57kg at his last outing in the Wellington Cup. His runs this prep have all had a lot of merit
and I think we are starting to see the making of a genuine top-level stayer. He does have to cope
with a drop back from 3200m on a wet track to the 2400m here, but he should be able to get a cosy
run around mid-field from barrier 7.

A mare that has burst onto the scene quickly is #9 AQUACADE. Scoring two dominant wins
in her last two outings, she comes into this event in red-hot form but will also have the benefit of
having to carry just 54kgs. She will have to handle a rise in class and her wide draw is an obstacle,
but the man on top, Warren Kennedy, is on fire at the moment and knows her so well. I think she
should be able to roll across early and get a nice spot just off the speed as there is a long run to the
first corner at Pukekohe over 2400m.

Four starts ago when he was coming through rating grade races, #12 CONTEMPLATION may have
looked slightly out of place in a Group 2. However, in his last two starts he has really announced
himself as a stayer to keep an eye on, suggesting he can pick up a cup race very soon. A solid 2nd in
the Karaka Cup, where he was a touch unlucky on the corner, followed by a very tough 2nd in last
months Wellington Cup proves this 5YO son of So You Think is made of the right stuff to compete at
this level. He has drawn nicely in gate 3 and from there, Craig Zackey should be able to put him in to
a forward spot early. He is another who will have to handle the drop back from 3200m but the
footing should be of no concern.

Back (Win) - #9 AQUACADE
Back (Place) - #12 CONTEMPLATION