Bet of the week - Jumps Ellerslie 17 October

Paul Claridge
15 October 2020

Race 1 LOVERACING.NZ MAIDEN HURDLE 2760m

Form from the Pakuranga meeting appears to be the most logical to follow in the opening event and for me that form points to 4 strong chances. AZABEAT from was good in his debut, as to the 3 place getters behind Cleaver namely RAUCOUS, RICHARD OF YORKE and VINCENTIUS.

AZABEAT jumped (as to be expected) very proficiently all the way in his race. He only just went down after covering extra ground and there should be some nature improvement as a result. RAUCOUS was equally as impressive in his first run over the fences and only relented to Cleaver short of the the line while RICHARD OF YORKE was a solid third and maybe one who would appreciate any extra give in the track. The last of my chances from that race is VINCENTIUS who took off quiet way’s from home in that race and only weakening late in the piece. If he can be ridden a little ‘colded’ on Saturday he could represent some real value.

SUGGEST BET:                   AZABEAT Each way

                                                Quinella               1-2-5

                                                F4                           1-2-3-5

Race 3 LOVERACING.NZ.STEEPLECHASE 4150M

The 0-1 Steeples presents a very open event but basically the form from the 2 lead up races at Pakuranga and Hawera last week reflected those with the best chances.

MESMERIZE took a long time to get that first win but its 1 win more than the others and given the same track and distance conditions are likely to prevail on Saturday he looks a real chance to go back-to-back.  TE KAHU will be tough, he produced another solid effort in that same race and gets a 1.5kgs advantage this time round so cannot be ignored. ZARTAN was solid behind Country Bumpkin last weekend at Hawera as to NO CHANGE, who should strip fitter after that run which was his first in 10 weeks (assuming he runs here instead of the GN Hurdles).  MANDALAY is always a chance and is very capable of fighting out the finish amongst this field.

SUGGESTED BET:             MESMERIZE Each Way

                                                Quinella               1 -3-4

                                                F4                           1-3-4/1-2-3-4/1-2-3-4/F

Race 4 ARC GREAT NORTHERN HURDLE 4190M

The Great Northern is the extreme stamina test for hurdlers but unlike previous year better track conditions should make this a fantastic spectacle rather than the traditional slog fest we are use to. Although there is a couple of potential stars amongst the filed overall it’s a good even field with all some chances if they were to put their best effort and get the trip. Also pleasing to see will be the return of 3 of our very best riders, all on-board some of the leading chances.

To the race and AIGNE is the clearly the form horse of the season and with Shaun FANNIN back from injury, he presents as a real strong chance to wrap up the season with another feather into his cap. While he may have only just made it last time out, I suspect FANNIN will take a more patience approach and will wait until the very last moment to produce him for the final run to the post.  That said he won’t be able to let MAGNAMIOUS MAN and THE COSSACK get to far in front of him. Both have both looked good in recent starts and with Shaun PHELAN and Aaron KURU (particularly as this is AK’s only ride for the day) in the respective saddles they shape as real chances to test the toppie. The chances don’t end there though with TOMMYRA, AVE MARIA and EL LUCHADOR all very appealing prospects at good odds as to DELEGATE who caused AIGNE supporter’s a few heart palpitations  last time.

SUGGESTED BET               Hard to go away from AIGNE

                                                Quinella:              1-7-8

                                                Multi’s:                 1-7-8/6-9-10                                      

Race 6 ARC GREAT NORTHERN STEEPLECHASE 6400M

This is the marathon and the form doesn’t always match up in this race as it’s often a test of the horse’s strength, willingness and unreserved stamina ability. For most jumping enthusiasts this is always the race of the season, the one when the big boys (and girls this year) come out to play and its no different this year with a former Grand National Winner, a Dual North Winner and several up and coming Chasers set to face the challenge of crossing the infamous Ellerslie hill 3 times.

Despite his last start run WISE MEN SAY still remains the ‘King of the Hill’ and while he was well back the Pakuranga HC (PHC) leaving him out of any multi’s on the weekend could be fatal particularly if there is any give in the ground. SHAMAL will also love the extra round and although he too was well back last time another lap brings him right back into contention as to would any rain. PERRY MASON was good in the Hastings chase 2 back and while he was forced to scratch from the PHC he went round on the flat last week and is differently one who will appreciate any firming in the track. MAGIC WONDER was outstanding in the PHC and she clearly had the boys on the ropes a long way from home. Mare’s traditionally don’t have a good record in this race but this one maybe the exception and it would be a fantastic result for the Wanganui fraternity if she can maintain her momentum over the additional lap.  NAPOLEON & DES DE JEU are both very capable on their day and with one of their best efforts could be there at the sharp end while SOUTHERN COOL & GRINNER are exciting ‘babies’ at this game; in terms of experience they have only a handful of steeplechase runs between them but their last runs in the PHC behind Magic Wonder were also full of merit.

SUGGESTED BET               MAGIC WONDER for the win (& to give Shaun FANIN an notable double)

                                                Quinella               2-3-4-7

                                                Multi’s                  3-4-7/1-2/F

You might also like