Ohope Wins produced another sparkling performance to capture the Al Basti New Zealand Oaks last Saturday.

Her ability to quicken from the back, off slow tempo, is the domain of truly elite racehorses. Her 11.84sec 200m sectional at the end of a 2400m race is quite extraordinary when considering only the Rating 75 1400m race had quicker closing sectionals. She has finished quicker than I’m All In in winning an Open 1200m!

At Te Rapa she ran the quickest last 200m for the entire meeting.

So, what of the all-important international race rating, in terms of our Classic 3yo fillies contest retaining Group 1 status?

An international race rating is the average of the season-high international rating of the first 4 placegetters. So, depth of quality beyond the winner is important.

(A horse’s international rating should not be confused with the NZTR domestic rating. An international rating is an assessment of a horse’s best performance, aligned internationally. A domestic rating is for domestic racing and weighting purposes. It will rise and fall after each start. A 3yo needs to prove competitive in the open grade before getting a high domestic rating)

There will be a lift in 2026 NZ Oaks international race rating – clearly Ohope Wins will rate well but the depth of placegetters is also strong – Autumn Glory (Group 2 winner of Legacy Lodge Waikato Guineas at previous start), and Single Red and Ariadne both bringing Group 2 placings. The only drawback is the margin Ohope Wins has put on her rivals late, for example 5.62L to 4^th. (At 2400m the margin calculation is 1.5 points per 1L margin, thus Ariadne will sit at 8 points below Ohope Wins.)

Separate to above, a speed rating is tool which might be referenced in establishing the race rating and quality. Given a slow tempo, it is very difficult to generate a high speed rating, and especially so in a staying race. We tend to largely ignore speed ratings for staying races in NZ, as the rating becomes more a reflection of tempo than race quality. Respected form analysts Stephen Hunt modifies the speed rating calculation to incorporate closing sectionals analysis. We do note these figures.

https://trackside.co.nz/article/stephen-hunt-runs-the-numbers-on-oaks-day

Referencing historically, Ohope Wins dominance is not dissimilar to Pennyweka (2023 - international rating 110*). But given stronger depth of placegetters Ohope Wins will be proposed at a preliminary figure of 111. This figure will place her level with Jennifer Eccels (2020) and 2 points lower than Amarelinha (113, 2021).

*Pennyweka later reached 112 in winning the Australian Oaks.

With Ohope Wins at 111 the NZ Oaks would retain Group 1 status, but noting this is a provisional assessment needing verification via international handicappers and is also dependent on subsequent performances.

The possibility of leading fillies returning in the World Pool New Zealand Derby can also potentially strengthen the international race ratings of both the NZ Oaks and NZ Derby. Ohope Wins remains in the NZ Derby entries but only as a precaution against travel complications to Australia. Ariadne (4^th) is also entered and Autumn Glory has been late nominated.