Meeting News
Handicapping Blog 14-10-2024
Maiden As At (MAAT) race conditions
The conditions for future MAAT races are under immediate review following the declaration of weights for Race 5 at Te Rapa last Saturday.
Lux Libertas, a 4-race winner, was in receipt of 0.5kg from a winner of just 1 race - such are the current MAAT race handicap conditions. Needless to say, the inequity of the weights was alarming.
The race numbers did not hold up with 6 scratchings and it became an unappealing betting contest for many with a $1.30 favourite.
The handicapping team will review previous MAAT race results and make a submission to the Handicapping Review Committee.
Recent re-ratings of interest
The Hottie was rehandicapped 8 points to 94 for her Grangewilliam Stud Breeders Stakes win on Saturday. WFA Fillies and Mares contests can be perplexing to re-rate with often a wide spread of ratings at level weights.
It could be argued that The Hottie in beating Town Cryer (rating 98) at level weights by 1.3L had run to a rating of 101 – a rating more akin to Group 1 performances.
The handicapping team considering all assessment figures, and the close margin of Wessex (88), Liffey (81), and Sumi (89), concluded that Town Cryer had not run to her rating in this contest fresh-up. By using Wessex (1.4L) and Sumi (2.0L) as more appropriate makers, a rating of 94 for The Hottie is confirmed.
One Bold Cat’s Arrowfield Stakes win moved him to 103. This was relatively straightforward re-rating giving his narrow margin victory over Skew Wiff, rated 102.
Placegetters Matscot and Lightning Jack were more challenging to reassess. Matscot (+4) moved to 96 – a career-peak and a logical fit for a Group 1 pacing and his overall profile. Lightning Jack (+4) moved to 94 – 1kg behind Matscot.