Re-ratings

The re-rating of winners is based on a number of factors. Primarily, we use the quantifiable measures of weights and margins, but we also call on other criteria/tools for assessment such as field depth/quality, speed ratings, horse profile – record, history, age, the track conditions, the overall race set-up, etc.

Presently, (as a guide only - and subject to assessing all data) the average Industry Day winner will move +4 points. Narrow margins can be lower, and wider margins higher. Feature/Premier Day winners can expect to be higher for comparable wins.

Group race re-ratings

At the top of handicap ratings (highest-rated horses), the re-ratings become more an alignment and assessment of quality.

A good example is Bonny Lass in the Waikato Stud Foxbridge Plate (Group 2). While assessment measures were again utilized, more scrutiny is placed on her overall record and where she logically aligns with other high-rating horses. Bonny Lass was given a re-rating of +3 points taking her to 105. This placed her 1 point behind dual Group 1 winner Mustang Valley (106) – a logical fit.

Second-placed Mali Ston was re-rated to 99 (+5 points) – 1.0kg behind Bonny Lass. And 0.5kg in front of Skew Wiff (3^rd). He would be well-treated under handicap conditions against that pair, but it is an appropriate mark given he has yet to win a Group 1.

Grail Seeker was another interesting re-rating example in the Westbury Stud Tarzino Trophy (Group 1) last Saturday, with an increase +19 points to rating 100. This re-rating was more procedural in assessment.

In recent years the lowest a Group 1 WFA winner re-rating was Mercurial (98) in last year’s Telegraph – a messy-run race. For Grail Seeker’s comparison, Skew Wiff winning last year’s Tarzino Trophy moved to rating 100. The race consistently trends as one of our better Group 1 races on international ratings.

In reviewing the race, obviously Crocetti and Bonny Lass have been below expectations, but other performance measures such as the speed ratings for the race are excellent. Grail Seeker’s overall form profile was slightly inferior to Skew Wiff at the same juncture, but her speed figure here is slightly superior. An equal rating is appropriate.

The 19-point re-rating does also highlight the risk and reward scenario of running a progressing horse in a Group race. Grail Seeker at an 81 rating was carrying only 0.5kg behind a rating 105 horse in Bonny Lass. So, a top 3 finish in the Group 1 was going to attract high large re-rating.

Runner-up Faraglioni produced a very good returning performance, virtually replicating her peak speed figure from the TAB Classic behind Desert Lightning – an underrated form reference race. She has moved +4 points to 98, 1kg (approx. 1L) behind Grail Seeker, and an equal rating with third-placed Sacred Satono (unchanged at 98).