Best Bets

Race 5 #5 – NOM DE PLUME

Race 7 #7 – LA CRIQUE

 

Value Bet

Race 6 #1 – MARLBOROUGH BAY

 

Race 5 - HARCOURTS ŌTAKI 3&4YO

Key Runners

#1 TE TOKI

#2 HIGH CHOICE

#5 NOM DE PLUME

Summary

From barrier rise, I expect to see #2 HIGH CHOICE use the inside gate and hold a spot either leading or trailing early, with #4 WENEEDASHOCK and #6 KATTEGAT likely to roll forward also. #1 TE TOKI gets back to a staying trip which will suit the son of Tarzino, who has an opportunity to settle just off the speed, giving him every chance.

The likely leader in the race #2 HIGH CHOICE, should be able to roll to the lead from that draw and that will ensure Michael McNab can control the race as he likes. He was a brave 2nd last start to Derby hopeful Mark Twain and 2100m on a soft track will be suitable.

An eye-catching run last start over 1400m from #5 NOM DE PLUME is the reason she has come up the early favourite. She campaigned in Queensland as a 3yo filly, running in the Group 1 Oaks. We know she will be suited at the 2100m, the concern is the potential lack of speed for a horse with her get-back racing pattern and she does face a sharp rise from 1400m to 2100m. However, I think she is a mare with plenty of quality and that will take her a long way to winning this.

Betting Strategy

Back (Win) - #5 NOM DE PLUME

 

Race 7 - EL CHEAPO CARS WFA CLASSIC (Group 1)

Key Runners

#6 LEVANTE

#7 LA CRIQUE

#9 WILD NIGHT

Summary

We’re in for another mouth-watering Group 1 clash of proven WFA stars against the up-and-coming class of 2023. #6 LEVANTE has undeniably been one of New Zealand’s best and brightest for some time now and faces a step up to 1600m for just the third time in her career. She’s racing as though the rise in distance will be welcome come Saturday, although I still can’t see her settling any closer than 6th in the run. She has the class but will need every bit of it, as she will be spotting some quality horses a big head start.

A tricky race to map on paper, I think #7 LA CRIQUE and Craig Grylls will take bad luck out of the equation and look to lead this race throughout. We have seen her dominate over 1600m from the front at this level before and from barrier 4, she should have no trouble finding the top. Her last start was a run to forget, and we will see her put her best foot forward again.

#9 WILD NIGHT has been brilliant in his races to date and the form when 2nd in the Karaka Million 3yo to Prowess, has been franked along with his game 3rd at WFA level last start behind Sharp ‘N’ Smart, which was equally as impressive. He does face a drop back in trip and will need to take on star mares LA CRIQUE and LEVANTE at their own game. Michael McNab should have no trouble putting WILD NIGHT in a stalking position early and I think he will end up in the first 4 in the run.

Betting Strategy

Back (Win) - #7 LA CRIQUE