Handicapping Blog – Spring Vibes

This is a great time of year to be a racing enthusiast. Spring is close!

Last weekend was our first look at the emerging talent in our classic 3yo ranks and we also saw a good number of our elite horses returning and going through their paces in barrier trials.

Three Year Olds

It was an intriguing set-up for the 3yo’s with the part-clash of the Cambridge Stud Northern Breeders Stakes (Group 3, Open 3yo) at Ruakaka on Saturday and the newly embossed black-type race, Chittick Family Fillies Classic (Listed, 3yo Filly), at Taupo on Sunday. Fortunately, both races had good depth of quality.

She’s No Saint showed good potential through her 2yo campaign, often without all favours. She has gone to a new level this preparation and capped off a winning hatrick here on her home track at Ruakaka. Her speed figure is genuine Group 3 3yo quality on a track which “slowed” as day progressed. And her post-race handicap rating of 73 has aligned two points higher than last year’s winner Tajana, acknowledging her comparable dominance.

Runner-up Shalabiya returns a solid Group 3 placing at her second start, but this was inferior version, on raw speed figures, to the filly we saw in her stunning debut win.

Moving to Sunday at Taupo, Hawea has created quite an impression in her 3yo return. Another which did not have all favours in her 2yo prep but she did secure a Group 2 placing in the Matamata Breeders Stakes on a Heavy track. As this is her first win and a Listed win her re-rating is slightly lower than She’s No Saint at 70. This matches In Haste’s re-rating in 2025 renewal and is lower than Alabama Lass’ (75) impressive display in 2024.

My personal speed figures here, weight adjust She’s No Saint and Hawea to strikingly similar marks, so this is a pleasing starting point for the new Listed race. It also makes for an enthralling potential clash in a Sunline Vase (Group 3) in two weeks’ time at Ellerslie.

3yo filly ranks look strong once again this season.

Fortunato was good on the eye in the 3yo Colts and Geldings race at Taupo - settling back in a slowly run race and finishing strongly. The speed figure is uninspiring, but the slow tempo made a good speed figure impossible. There is definitely upside with Fortunato, given this was a debut performance against winners, and he is the full brother to Levin Classic (Gp1) winner Bonham. In terms of a re-rating Fortunato is reassessed at 63 after an all-maiden finish to the 3yo contest.

 

Older Horses

The older horses put on a show in barrier trials prior to the racemeetings at both Ruakaka and Taupo.

The Clotworthy-trained trio all pleased at Ruakaka – Espadas, Pulsatilla and Willydoit. The latter looked to have improved nicely from his exhibition gallop two weeks prior. The trial was run at soft tempo.

Taupo trials were potentially more revealing, with two superb fields assembled.

Heat 1 was run at genuine raceday tempo and generated an elite speed figure. Any number of horses impressed, none more so than the winner Drops Of God. Afternoon Siesta closed strongly in 2^nd and She’s A Dealer caught the eye in behind.

In Heat 2 Well Written contested a more sedately run affair but has trialed better than she did at Cambridge as she builds towards her much anticipated return. The step from a 3yo to the Open ranks as a 4yo is always a test.  Checkmate was an attractive trial in 3^rd. He is a horse who has hinted he could reach a decent level.