There have been ongoing discussions around the weight conditions for New Zealand’s newest and richest race - The NZB Kiwi.

The original motivation was for Set Weights and Penalties conditions to create a genuine and open contest, not simply a free hit for the best 3yo.

For example, at level weights in a season with a dominant 3yo, eg. Crocetti and Savaglee, there would be a chance of either all Slots not being filled, or the race developing a long tail of horses with inferior form running just for appearance money that lower placings still provides.

3yo Set Weights and Penalties are as follows:

The base weights are Colts and Gelding 57.0kgs, and Fillies 55.0kgs

Winner of a Group 1 flat race +3.0kg,

Winner of a Group 2 flat race +2.0kg,

Winner of a Group 3 flat race and/or three or more flat races +1.5kg,

Winner of a Listed flat race and/or two flat races +1.0kg,

Maiden weight allowance -1.0kg.

Penalties not cumulative.

This year, we do have a scenario of two almost polar opposites after the two 3yo Classics at Riccarton.

Romanoff (3g Belardo), at first glance, has a challenging 3.0kg penalty for a pencil-line victory in an open renewal of the Al Basti Equiworld NZ 2000 Guineas. Conversely, Well Written (3f Written Tycoon) in producing a win for the ages in the Barneswood Farm NZ 1000 Guineas is likely value for more than the 3.0kg penalty!

But in analysing the likely weights an important consideration is the relativity of the weights. Last year in the NZB Kiwi only two horses in the 14-runner field did not have a penalty.

https://loveracing.nz/RaceInfo/53320/8/Race-Detail.aspx

Evaporate (2^nd) carried top weight of 59.0kgs with 1^st and 3^rd 0.5kg lower (when accounting for fillies 2kg allowance).

Also at play is the potential psychology around the perceived leap from 59.0kgs to 60.0kgs. This is not supported by any data we have seen…to the contrary actually. That said, it could be that the NZB Kiwi conditions are modified over time to have its own tailored weights. For example, given the almost certain scenario of no maiden runners ever competing, then the base weights could be lowered by 1.0kg.

Below is the current weights set-up for top 12 NZB Kiwi horses in the market. Noting a myriad of black-type 3yo races over Christmas and as lead-ups to the NZB Kiwi.

Well Written	58.0
La Dorada	58.0
Affirmative Action	58.0
Lollapalooza	56.5
Romanoff	60.0
Kiwi Raider	55.0
He Who Dares	57.0
Pulsatilla	56.0
Solid Gold	54.0
Tajana	56.5
Belle Cheval	55.0
Lucy In The Sky	56.0