Pattern of Discontent

The release of the New Zealand Pattern Committee (NZPC) report last week has prompted much discussion and debate. I am a member of the NZPC and New Zealand’s representative on the Asian Pattern Committee (APC).

The recent retirement and/or relocation of high-rating horses presents a challenge for New Zealand races to maintain Group 1 status. We struggle with size and scope. In season 2020/21New Zealand had 25 horses with an international rating at 113 or above (including the fillies/mares 4-point allowance). Last season commenced with 12 such horses.

There will be a lag in the positivity generated by significant prizemoney increases, which fed into record domestic investment at NZB yearling sales, and those horses reaching the racetrack. Thoroughbred wagering since Entain’s takeover in June 2023 is up an encouraging 14% (approx.), especially when compared globally. Positive signs, but not to make light of the many underlying issues and challenges facing the NZ industry.

For accuracy, it was not the NZPC that downgraded the Thorndon Mile.

The NZPC prepared downgrade defences of five Group 1 races at the Asian Pattern Committee meeting on September 11th – NZ Oaks, NZ Breeders Stakes, Ormond Memorial (Livamol Classic), Telegraph and Thorndon Mile, after each had three consecutive International Race Rating (IRR) failures.

An IRR is calculated by the first-4 finishers. Missing the required international benchmark and tolerance mark three years in succession prompts an APC vote on the future of the race as a Group 1. In defence, the highest-4 ratings in the race can also be used. New Zealand was defending a record number of races at the APC meeting.

Summer carnival changes did see improvement in ratings for a number of races. The Telegraph attracted a strong field, even when considering the overnight scratching of Crocetti and Babylon Berlin and was unlucky to miss the IRR by a mere 0.25, with Group 1 winners Waitak, Bonny Lass and Mercurial all finishing outside the first 4.

The Thorndon Mile had been under downgrade threat previously, prompting a change in weight conditions from handicap and set weights and penalties in 2014. The race has never reached the IRR benchmark on any measure and had missed the tolerance mark in four of the past five years. In 2023 the race even missed the Group 2 benchmark rating. Unlike the NZ Oaks, The Thorndon did not have a change that could display the necessary uplift in ratings required. The race was voted down by the APC.

The NZ Oaks, while producing some superb winners, recently has not been supported by sufficient depth and quality, and even missed the Group 2 standard in 2024. And a significant purse uplift to $1 million (comparable to VRC Oaks and Australian Oaks) did not improve the overall race quality in 2025 but did, at least, help ensure that champion filly Leica Lucy ran in the race. A change to race conditions, for example date, distance, track, conditions (weights) is a defence mechanism against immediate downgrade, if also supported by data and analysis for potential benefits and uplift.

The decision to move a treasured Classic from the traditional venue was not taken lightly. It was preferable to the connotations of a Group 2 NZ Oaks. The shift is not certain to save the Group 1 status but appears to give the race the best chance of maintaining Group 1 status. For example, moving to a date which has synergy with the NZ Derby and Australian filly feature races. The shift will be reassessed post the 2026 renewal.

The highest-4 ratings for the other three Group 1’s (Telegraph, NZ Breeders and Livamol) were sufficient to see them given an extra chance at Group 1 level. The NZ Breeders Stakes move gets it away from what was a congested Champions Day programme, with several races potentially competing for runners. In its new place in the calendar, the race could tempt a filly out of the NZB Kiwi and also creates a bumper raceday alongside the Manawatu Sires Produce (Group 1) and three other black-type races at Awapuni.

It is important to note that, while it is very disappointing to have one of our Group 1 races downgraded, South Africa had three Group 1 races downgraded by the APC.

But as we mull the disappointing downgrade vote for the Thorndon Mile the dysfunction of the Australian Pattern Committee is frustrating many NZ participants. The Australian PC has not operated for 8 years. Their dysfunction is complex, practically and legally, and is under confidentiality restrictions. The misinformation circulating has not been helpful.

It should be noted that while there should have been a few downgrades in Australia, the missing value in scores of race upgrades to the Australian industry would be far more significant…and likely an immense figure.

A creditable black-type pattern is an important part of a viable thoroughbred breeding and racing industry. And it has to maintain international credibility and relevance. We cannot be labelling races as Groups 1’s when they clearly aren’t by any known measure.

New Zealand, proportionately, has an uncomfortably high number of black-type races per races run. The downgrade of Thorndon Mile is disappointing, but ultimately the race’s performance ratings were not good enough. It is also worth noting it was one of five open grade Group 1 races at 1600m.

That said, the necessary pre-emptive steps need to continue to be made to protect the Group 1 races critical to the ecosystem of the NZ thoroughbred racing and breeding industry.

The key to the long-term sustainability of New Zealand’s Group 1 races is in consistently attracting the best horses available – not just a couple of them. Ironically, given some of the commentary on this subject, race ratings are seriously undermined by the practice of splitting stable resources, especially in age group races.

Finally, the Pattern is continually evolving. The advent of sale bonus races and now a valuable slot race are a challenge and a threat to our age group Group 1s, as evidenced by the downgrade of the Levin Classic previously. Making Pattern changes to innovate, reflect change or avert potential downgrades is not straightforward – the NZPC can make recommendations, but these require Club buy-in. To that end, RACE/Wellington Racing Club are to be commended in agreeing to an “industry-first” decision for the 2026 NZ Oaks to remain a Group 1.