Handicapper’s Blog 18/11

The New Zealand Cup carnival provides the perfect finale to New Zealand’s spring racing. The 3-day, Group 1 carnival is unique, and fits ideally on the back of Melbourne Cup week.

It is a busy racing week, with 9 meetings programmed across the country, and invariably presents numerous re-ratings of interest. We touch on Open race winners below.

Feature Open race winner ratings:

Bella Waters	Gartshore Tauranga Stakes, Group 2, $150k	98
Mehzebeen	Martin Collins NZ Cup, Group 3, $400k	97
Kopua	TAB Mile, Group 3, $250k	96
Mystic Park	Lindauer Stewards, Listed, $140k	95

Bella Waters entered the Tauranga Stakes as a rating 84 horse and risked a large re-rating for a top 4 finish - given she was competing at WFA against a 105-rated horse, Ladie’s Man, and other high-rating horses at the level weights.

In winning she beat two rating 98 horses, Pearl Of Alsace and Mali Ston, in a tight finish. Given the narrow margins, and the relative weights, a re-rating to 98 (+14) was appropriate. Any less of a re-rating would have her receiving weight at their next meeting under handicap conditions, which is not equitable.

The risk and benefits of running a progressive horse in a race under these conditions is a balancing act. No doubt Cambridge Stud factored these, and the calculated risk has paid dividends with Bella Waters now a Group-2 winning mare.

In terms of feedback, Kopua was the most contentious re-rating of the week with his 9-point re-rating for the TAB Mile win.

The entry of Perfect Scenario (rating 107) pushed the majority of field to 53kgs and out of the handicap. Kopua was 6 points out of the handicap (ie. In a precise handicap he would have carried 50kgs).

To give Kopua a re-rating 6 points or less for the win would see the entire field facing him again at exactly the same weights set-up.

Kopua was given 3 points for the win, and 6 points for the out of handicaps adjustment.

In simple terms, had the race been run again Kopua would carry 54.5kgs.

Mehzebeen and Mystic Park were standard feature race re-ratings of 5 points, given no issues with out of handicap.

Previously, Mehzebeen had attracted an 8-point re-rating on Day 1 for an out of the handicap win in the Metropolitan Trophy (Listed). In that race also, Beavertown Boy was re-rated 7 points for his 2^nd placing, moving him 1kg below the winner at that point in time.