David Archer has participated in more than enough of racing’s big dances to know that on a racetrack nothing can be taken for granted or predicted with absolute accuracy.

That’s why his optimism ahead of Saturday’s $4 million NZB Kiwi (1500m) remains unbending despite the formidable challenge presented by Well Written, who has dominated pre-race discussions as the unbeaten winner of five races and since the last of those in the $1.5 million Karaka Millions 3YO (1600m), the $1.20 favourite.

Archer is the breeder and co-owner with his partner Diane Wright and children Simon and Natalie of Belle Cheval, who has staked her own NZB Kiwi claims after winning her last two starts.

As the $9 second favourite, the Mark Walker and Sam Bergerson-trained filly is the only one of Well Written’s 13 rivals at a single-digit quote on the TAB’s fixed odds market.

In just her third start last November, she finished third to Well Written in the Gr.1 New Zealand 1000 Guineas (1600m) and has won both her starts since returning from a let-up.

On the eve of her fresh-up win the Gr.3 Almanzor Trophy (1200m) on the Karaka Millions support card in late January, Belle Cheval was claimed for the NZB Kiwi by slot holders The King’s Men.

Her credentials have been strengthened further by a dominant win in the Gr.3 Uncle Remus Stakes (1400m) at Ellerslie’s final race meeting ahead of Champions Day.

On top of being by champion stallion Savabeel, Belle Cheval has potent pedigree credentials to back her NZB Kiwi claims. She is a half-sister to triple Australian Group One-winning sprinter The Bostonian and is closely related to two-time Horse of the Year and Hall of Famer Mufhasa.

Both horses wore Archer’s sliver and blue colours for a combined 30 wins and stake-earnings amounting to some $5.5 million.

In the midst of the pair’s winning records, however, were times when not everything went to plan, which is something that Archer is holding onto ahead of Belle Cheval’s attempt to become the first horse to beat Well Written.

With tally of 20 wins, and half of those at Group One level, Mufhasa was not only a crowd favourite but also a prime fancy with punters.

Not always did pre-race expectations play out, most notably when he lined up as the $1.40 favourite to add the 2011 Gr.2 Tauranga Stakes (1600m) to his record, only to be undone by $18 longshot Lady Chaparral.

Archer’s catalogue of memories remains vivid as well as educational and sobering, which buoys him ahead of Belle Cheval’s bid for NZB Kiwi honours.

“A horse race is a horse race and you never know what might happen,” Archer said. “We were so fortunate to race two wonderful horses in Mufhasa and The Bostonian, but things didn’t always go their way.

“After The Bostonian had won the Doomben 10,000 and Kingsford-Smith in Brisbane, he lined up in the Stradbroke to become the highest weighted horse to complete the big sprint treble.

“Just before the race it rained on top of a good surface and when he jumped he slipped so badly that he ripped up this great long strip of turf, lost lengths and that was it, game over.

“Towards the end of his career Mufhasa was dealing with breathing and foot issues and in the lead-up to the George Ryder at Rosehill he suffered two (epiglottal) entrapments, but the vets dealt with them and gave him the green light.

“Then in the birdcage just before the jockeys mounted he pulled a plate, the farrier had trouble getting it back on and even after all that he still had the race won until Pierro, a horse rated a champion by Gai Waterhouse, got up to beat him by a neck.

“After all his wins, with so many things against him, I still rate that performance as one of his very best.”

While fully appreciating the size of the task facing Belle Cheval on Saturday, Archer is by no means conceding victory to the hot favourite.

“We know on Saturday we’ve got to meet a top, if not champion, filly and we’ll need everything in our favour if we’re any chance of beating her.

“The only time the two of them have met was in the 1000 Guineas when our girl had no luck in the running but still made up lengths on Well Written.

“Mind you Well Written has been very dominant since and that last win of hers was something else.

“Everything has gone to plan with our filly, her trackwork has been very good and if everything works in our favour we’ve got a stunning filly, she’s in the right form and she’s shown that she’s got gears.

“The one remaining thing we need is a good gate, and I’ve left that onerous task at the barrier draw function on Tuesday night to Di, it will be up to her.

“For me it’s a little early to be counting sleeps, but my son and daughter in Australia are already super-excited and they’re booked to come across with their children from Brisbane and Sydney.

“I know it will take something very special to win, but we’ll go along to Ellerslie with a smile on our faces and if she does finish second we’ll be happy. If she was to win, well…”