While many trainers are hoping to see the rain stay away from Hawke’s Bay this week, Andrew Forsman has the opposing view when considering whether to start Mustang Valley in Saturday’s Gr.1 Tarzino Trophy (1400m).

Mustang Valley has collected both of her Group One victories during the spring carnival at Hastings, firstly with the 2022 running of the Gr.1 Livamol Classic (2040m), and last year’s Gr.1 Arrowfield Stud Plate (1600m).

Returning in her six-year-old season, the mare was a strong fifth behind Bonny Lass in the Gr.2 Foxbridge Plate (1200m) at Te Rapa last month, a key lead-in to the opening elite-level race of the new term.

“She’s going really well, we were happy with her run in the Foxbridge and while she didn’t get all favours, being shuffled back and losing her spot, she was game making her run up the worst part of the track,” Forsman said.

“She’ll improve for that having only had the one trial going into it.”

The daughter of Vanbrugh is more than capable on a good surface, but she is extremely effective as the track conditions deteriorate, with the alternative option an Open 1400m contest at New Plymouth, a race she won last year before taking out the Arrowfield Stud Plate.

“It is very much track dependent, we’ll look at the forecast on Wednesday morning and decide whether we accept,” he said.

“If there is any sign of rain, that would help her and possibly slow a few of the others down, but if not, we have the option of New Plymouth as a back-up the following Saturday.”

Prior to the feature meeting, Forsman will have three representatives at Matamata on Wednesday, including Wyndsong in the Pam Gerard – Ballymore Racing 1200.

A filly by Wyndspelle, Wyndsong had four starts during her juvenile campaign for two fourths, with improving track conditions likely to play in her favour.

“She’s coming along nicely, we just wanted to get away from the deeper winter tracks as she copped a couple that were just a bit too heavy for her,” Forsman said.

“We’re hopeful that the track will be on the better side of heavy come Wednesday, we’ve had a couple of very warm days so hopefully it will be improving for her, that will help her chances.”

Forsman has put in an early nomination for the Gr.1 Barneswood Farm New Zealand 1000 Guineas (1600m), with the mile distance likely to suit going forward.

“She’s shown that ability since she was a two-year-old, she’s probably just still has a bit of strengthening and maturing to do,” he said.

“She’s just starting to move her coat and will look better in a couple of weeks, if she can just get through this first run I think she’ll continue to improve as the tracks do, and she can get out over a bit further.”

Stablemates Privy Garden and Wainui Bay are both vying for their maiden victories after a string of placings in recent performances.

A four-year-old by So You Think, Privy Garden was placed in each of her three starts through the late summer and will contest the Waharoa Transport Co. (1995) Ltd 1200 off a spell.

“She’s been a bit of a frustration, we felt she was building to a win then her last start at Taupo was a little bit disappointing, so we thought we would give her a little bit more time,” Forsman said.

“She’s come back a little bit stronger, so hopefully that will make the difference.”

Wainui Bay was narrowly beaten on the Cambridge Synthetic last start and is among the key contenders chasing the Entain/NZB Insurance Pearl Series bonus over a mile.

“The Pearl Series bonus race was the target for her, and there wasn’t a race for her at the last poly meeting, so it will be interesting,” Forsman said.

“We’re hopeful that things can work out for her off a bit of a break between runs, but it does look to be a winnable race.”

Meanwhile, across the Tasman at Forsman’s Flemington base, Group One winner Aegon has pulled up sore following an uncharacteristic performance in the Gr.1 Memsie Stakes (1400m) last Saturday at Caulfield, finishing at the tail of the field. 

“He’s pulled up a little bit sore behind, nothing too major so we’re hoping that with a few quiet days and a bit of chiropractic work, we can nurse him through the week and he will improve,” Forsman said.

“If that’s the case, we’ll likely press on with his preparation, and if we don’t see significant improvement in a week’s time, we may just have to stop and bring him home.”