Best Bets

Race 1 - #2 ENGLISH GAMBLER (WIN) – Heavy9 or better.

I thought the $2.70 on opening for English Gambler was well over the odds, I had him marked sub $2.00 in this field. His first-up win on the flat was huge, holding off race-rival, Leaderboard, despite Dean Parker dropping the whip at the top of the home straight. The relatively shorter hurdle trip of 2800m will also be ideal for English Gambler, as he’ll be bowling along in front and giving his rivals something to chase. The considerable weight swing between English Gambler and Leaderboard doesn’t concern me, as long as we’re still racing on no worse than a Heavy9 come Race 1 Saturday, English Gambler should give a great sight.

Race 8 - #4 WORDSWORTH (WIN)

Gritty performance to win last start over the 2100m on a Soft5 at Te Rapa. Really like the step back to the 1600m on a likely Heavy9-10 deck for this horse, as come this point of the day it may become more of a staying test. He has a great record at the course and distance as well as the rain-effected going. Wordsworth comes into this with only 55kg on his back after Triston Moodley’s 4kg claim, I think this apprentice is a huge talent, and the claim will be a big assist here.

Value Bet

Race 2 - #10 WHATANIGHT (EACH WAY)

Expecting significant improvement from this 3yo Turn Me Loose gelding first-up in his second preparation. The heavy track is the key to this horse for mine. He has looked just okay in his trials and sole race-day run, apart from one trial on a Heavy10, where he spaced his rivals – undeterred by the conditions. The wide draw (13) is a slight concern; however, the engagement of in-form jockey Warren Kennedy can negate this. In what looks a very open race on paper, I thought he was a nice each way play.

FEATURE RACE PREVIEW

Race 6 – Waikato Equine Veterinary Centre 2yo Stakes

Summary

Black type on offer for the 2yo’s in this listed event over the 1200m. The big question mark for many, if not all of these will be how they handle the heavy track. I expect the speed will be on throughout, with Madam Pennino & Tower Flypass working across from their wider draws, whilst Viva Vienna will likely want to use her inside barrier to take up a handy position also. Solidify & Viva Vienna head the market, with early money also coming for Moet Down.

Betting Strategy

#1 SOLIDIFY (WIN)

Landed on Solidify in what looks like an even lineup of 2yo’s, although the price isn’t anything to write home about. The step up to 1200m proved to only work in his favour last start, where he covered the ground nicely and put his rivals away with ease. He will likely get back off the expected genuine tempo and be coming hard late. Only a small win play, as I have question marks on how he’ll cop the heavy conditions.