Best Bets

Race 2 #6 MIDNIGHT MASS

Race 7 - #1 SEDAKA

Race 8 - #1 SHARP ‘N’ SMART

Value Bets

Race 1 - #3 HIGH CHOICE

Race 10 - #1 COTE DE BEAUNE

 

FEATURE RACE PREVIEW

Race 3 – HAUNUI FARM KINGS PLATE (Group 3)

Key Runners

#2 BABYLON BERLIN

#3 BONNY LASS

Summary

Only a small field of sprinters contesting this Group 3 event. Expecting #5 ROSE ‘N’ POWER to try and hold a spot from gate one, with #1 PACKING ROCKSTAR & #2 BABYLON BERLIN sliding across from their wider gates. Babylon Berlin dominates the betting for this, and rightfully so, having run 2nd in three successive Group one’s behind Imperatriz & Levante.

Betting Strategy

Back (Win) - #2 BABYLON BERLIN

She gets in extremely well at the weights, despite being the top rated horse in the field, she finds herself 1kg off the minimum with 54kg on her back. Kozzi Asano will likely take her straight to the front under her own steam, if that eventuates, she looks extremely hard to beat. The $1.40 quote is short enough, but she is that short for a reason.

 

Race 7 – MCKEE FAMILY SUNLINE VASE (Group 3)

Key Runners

#1 SEDAKA

#7 SAFURA

#11 MARVELOUZ

Summary

A competitive lineup of 3yo fillies stepping out to 2100m, with many of these on a path to the Gr.1 Al Basti Equiworld Dubai NZ Oaks. There looks to be a genuine tempo in the race, with the likes of #4 SAKURA GIRL, #5 THE WOMAN KING & #14 AMBERARNA pushing forward early. As far as the betting is concerned, it’s a very open race, with #4 SAKURA GIRL holding favouritism, after her distant 2nd to Prowess last start.

Betting Strategy

Back (Each Way) - #1 SEDAKA

I’ve been a big fan of her two latest runs when stepping out over 2000m, with the latest being a gallant 6th beaten 3L behind the boys in the Waikato Guineas. The progression to 2100m looks like it will only favour this filly by Savabeel, who is on a path to the NZ Oaks. The gate (15) could prove to be an obstacle, however, there looks to be a genuine tempo in the race, which should allow for Sam Spratt to find a spot with cover early. With even luck, she looks as good as any in this race, therefore happy to be with her at the price.

 

Race 8 – AUCKLAND THOROUGHBRED RACING NEW ZEALAND DERBY (Group 1)

Key Runners

#1 SHARP ‘N’ SMART

#2 DESERT LIGHTNING

#4 WAITAK

Summary

This is the first running of the New Zealand Derby at Te Rapa, with an 18-strong field searching for Group One glory. I found it tricky to find an outright leader, with the likes of #7 OPAWA JACK & #5 CRUZ MISSILE being candidates from their wider draws, whilst #1 SHARP ‘N’ SMART won’t want to be far away from his low gate (4). Despite there being no obvious pacemaker, I expect they’ll still roll along at a genuine enough tempo throughout. SHARP ‘N’ SMART dominates the betting, as he is in search of his third Group One win this season.

Betting Strategy

Back (Win) - #1 SHARP ‘N’ SMART

He’s a dual G1 winner, rated 32 points higher than any other runner in this field. He had the audacity to reel off the fastest closing 200m of the day when winning the Gr.1 WFA Herbie Dyke over 2000m, after travelling three-wide the trip, as well as being engaged in a bumping battle with Campionessa halfway down the straight. He would have to regress significantly from that performance to be troubled by any of these, yet you would only think the step up to 2400m would aid his chances over any others. He maps to settle handy from the low gate (4), which should see him given every chance to put this field away with even luck.