Best Bets

Race 2 #12 SHE’S A CON

Race 7 #1 ROMANCING THE MOON

Race 8 #3 EARS BACK

Value Bet

Race 4 - #4 KHIMAR WAR

 

FEATURE RACE PREVIEW

Race 7 - NZB INSURANCE STAKES (LISTED)

Key Runners

#1 ROMANCING THE MOON

#2 GOLDIE’S CHANCE

#3 MISS DUNSFORD

Summary

The 3YO fillies do battle in this Listed event and the filly at the top of the book #1 ROMANCING THE MOON has compiled a strong record in her short career and is a deserving favourite. She was strong finishing 2nd last start and the winner of that race isn’t in this field. She has drawn nicely and although there appears to be a lot of early speed in this, Joe Kamaruddin should have no issue finding a spot in the first 6 with cover. The 1400m looks to be her sweet spot and the form she brings to this behind LEGARTO suggests she is the one to beat.

Back to 1400m for this, #2 GOLDIE’S CHANCE will need a bit of luck to get a nice spot near the pace early, but Terry Moseley is the right rider for the job. Look for her to settle just off the leaders. She has the blinkers on for the first time and the winner of the Gore Guineas, she should have her chance to run a top race. I am concerned that she will need luck from the draw, and there may be a couple of horses in this who have a touch more class. She is tough though and I expect her to be right in the finish.

A horse who comes into this with an unconventional career to date, #3 MISS DUNSFORD began racing in Melbourne before heading back to New Zealand for a run at Matamata and then moving down south. Her strong win last start meant she has really put her hand up as a contender in this event. Stepping out to 1400m looks ideal for her and she should be able to get a perfect position around mid-field in the run from barrier 8. Hakim Kamaruddin knows her well and the stable is always one to watch when they trek south.  

Betting Strategy

Back (Win) - #1 ROMANCING THE MOON

Back (Place) - #3 MISS DUNSFORD

 

Race 8 - ODT SOUTHERN MILE FINAL

Key Runners

#1 CAPO DELL IMPERO

#2 SOKANON

#3 EARS BACK

#6 FETTERCAIRN

Summary

After 10 scintillating heats of the ODT Southern Mile series, we have reached the final. In this big field, there isn’t a stack of early speed. If #19 DIVINE SAVA gets in off the ballot, he could end up being the race leader. However, without him, there is a lack of natural leaders. #1 CAPO DELL IMPERO has a sticky draw in gate 12, but Jacob Lowry can take him back early and this will see him find some cover. He had it tough last start with a big weight and a wide draw, but he was too strong in the end. If things pan out the same here, I think he will be right in the finish.

Stringing together a great record in just 6 starts, #2 SOKANON has only disappointed once, last start. That recent effort, along with the wide draw does hold concerns for me, but his class will carry him a long way. He will need luck to settle where best in the run, but is certainly good enough to win here.

Few horses are racing better than #3 EARS BACK in this field. Winning 4 of her last 5, she has earned her spot at the top of this market. It really is hard to find a hole in her armor. If I had to be critical, she may still not be the finished product as she appears to race greenly, however, in saying that it hasn’t stopped her winning so far. Jasmine Fawcett knows her so well now and she will be able to get into a nice spot in running around mid-field. The John Blackadder stable is on fire at the moment and early market support suggests she is here to win again.

One to keep an eye on with the big drop in weights is #6 FETTERCAIRN. She will carry just 51.0kg in this after the claim for Lily Sutherland. Her runs have been solid this prep and everything seems to have been shaped around this race. Forgive her last start over 2000m as she drops back to 1600m for this race. She is more than capable at this grade and weight relief is a big assist. From her low draw in gate 6 she will be able to settle just off the leaders and will give a sight at good odds.

Betting Strategy

Back (Win) - #3 EARS BACK

Back (Place) - #6 FETTERCAIRN