TE RAPA – SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 11

BEST BETS

Race 2

#9 SANS DOUTE (Win)

I think anything around the $5 quote is a very good price for a filly with a lot of ability. She finds a weaker race than last start and she looks better going left-handed, which she will get here at Te Rapa.

Race 4

#7 SAKURA GIRL (Place / Top 4)

She is a filly who will relish the 2000m and with even luck, she is a very good top 4 chance at a price of around $2 with TAB.

 

FEATURE RACE PREVIEW

Race 4 - DAVID & KARYN ELLIS FILLIES CLASSIC (G2)

Speed Map

Tactics will play a very interesting role in this as we see a number of fillies, including the favourite, having their first start at the 2000m trip. #10 GLITZABELLA is a noted leader and from gate 4 it appears she will find the front rather easily. There then appears to be a clump of horses who will look to find spots just off the leader. Raging favourite, #1 PROWESS will need some luck from the wide draw if she is to settle in a spot in the first six in running. #7 SAKURA GIRL should be able to find a nice handy spot with cover early, meanwhile, #2 SAFURA will be giving away a big start as she will drop back from gate 11.

Key Runners

#1 PROWESS

#2 SAFURA

#7 SAKURA GIRL

Summary

Although she is drawn wide, #1 PROWESS looks to have a bit on this field in terms of what she has shown to date. She will need luck to find a spot in the early stages, but her class should be able to negate that. Nothing we have seen from her suggests she will have trouble running out a strong 2000m.

#2 SAFURA is starting to string together a very nice record and comes into this off the back of a solid maiden win at Matamata last start over 2000m. She has drawn wide and her natural tactics suggest she will go back. Look for her to be charging at the line late.

#7 SAKURA GIRL looks like she has drawn ideally from barrier 5. Her last start 5th in the Royal Stakes was impressive as she endured an interrupted run. If she can get a clear run this time, she is a definite place chance here.

Betting Strategy

Back (Win) - #1 PROWESS

Back (Place) - #7 SAKURA GIRL

 

Race 6 - HERBIE DYKE STAKES (G1)

Speed Map

This race is a tricky one to map, as there appears to be a lack of natural leaders. #3 DEMONETIZATION is likely to roll forward from barrier 5 as he has done in the past over 2000m. The sticking point for me is, what do the 3YO’s do from the jump. #9 SHARP ‘N’ SMART has come up with barrier 11 and is likely to roll forward as he did last start in the Thorndon Mile. With his light weight of 54kg, I can see Ryan Elliot taking advantage of the lack of early speed and settling just outside the leader. #10 WILD NIGHT is even harder to map. From his inside draw, WILD NIGHT is likely to settle 3 back on the fence as he is having his first start beyond 1600m and will look track something into the race at the 600m. Last but not least of the 3YO’s, #11 CRUZ MISSILE has drawn the ace in gate 1 and I expect him to join SHARP ‘N’ SMART at the head of the field. #1 DEFIBRILLATE has a sticky gate in 9, but he should be able to track across and settle 4th or 5th in the run. He will just need some luck to get cover early.

Key Runners

#1 DEFIBRILLATE

#9 SHARP ‘N’ SMART

#10 WILD NIGHT

Summary

We have three very talented 3YO’s taking on the older established WFA horses and when you throw in last year’s Derby winner, it makes for a tricky race to assess. #9 SHARP ‘N’ SMART is the early favourite and his performances as a spring 3YO were electric. He proved he is back with a brave 2nd last start against the older horses in the Thorndon Mile on a wet track. The rise to 2000m looks ideal for him and I think he should be able to get a comfortable run, even from his wide draw.

It's difficult to see where #10 WILD NIGHT settles in the run from the draw. He will be aided by the most in-form jockey in the country in Michael McNab and the early market support suggests he is ready to run a big race.

I have become more of a fan of #1 DEFIBRILLATE with each of his runs in New Zealand. This prep has been close to flawless, barring the 3rd in the Livamol Classic where he was first up due to the postponement of his planned lead up run. The 5-week gap between runs appears to be ideal for him and 2000m at Te Rapa will suit. He is a genuine WFA performer and if he is able to get in to a nice spot in the run, he should be right in the finish.

Betting Strategy

Back (Win) - #1 DEFIBRILLATE

I am taking on the two favourites here. I think WILD NIGHT is under the odds at his first attempt over 2000m at WFA and I am willing to take SHARP ‘N’ SMART on.

 

Race 8 - BCD GROUP SPRINT (G1)

Speed Map

An eagerly anticipated race for the sprinters, with six individual Group 1 winners doing battle. The speed looks like it will come from #10 FAITHFUL FEAT from gate 6 with #9 BABYLON BERLIN & #11 BONNY LASS likely to slot in behind her. This is where things get interesting, if #5 IMPERATRIZ and Opie Bosson decide to hold a spot on the rail from gate 1, BABYLON BERLIN has the potential to be caught wide, unless she rolls around to sit outside the leader. If #12 MAVEN BELLE also looks to hold an early spot from gate 2, then #7 LA CRIQUE may in fact end up wide or having to ease back to about 5th or 6th in the run. Star sprinting mare, #6 LEVANTE will go back as usual but will not want to be spotting the leading bunch too much of a head start and Ryan Elliot will look to have her just behind midfield.

Key Runners

#5 IMPERATRIZ

#6 LEVANTE

#7 LA CRIQUE

Summary

This race on paper maps pretty well for all horses to get the desired run in transit. I think race favourite #5 IMPERATRIZ should get to an ideal spot from her draw and the same can be said for #7 LA CRIQUE. #6 LEVANTE will negate the wide draw with her usual pattern. The only factor for her is, how much of a head start will she be giving them on the corner.

With that in mind, I think LA CRIQUE maps exceptionally and with her devastating turn of foot, she will be right there at the finish.

LEVANTE may just be leaving too much to do late here and as much as it pains me, I am going against her.

I am willing to have a small play on #2 DRAGON LEAP. He was very gallant when running 4th in the Group 1 Memsie Stakes in the spring in Melbourne and has been at that level since returning to New Zealand this prep. For top 4 punters, I think he is the value in the race.

Betting Strategy

Back (Win) - #7 LA CRIQUE

Back (Top 4) - #2 DRAGON LEAP