What does history tell us about Probabeel’s prospects in the A$1 million Group I Sires’ Produce Stakes at Randwick, in Sydney, on Saturday?

Well, there is good news and bad news.

The bad news is that it is 21 years since either a New Zealand-trained or New Zealand-bred youngster has won the 1400m two-year-old feature.

The good news is that the last four New Zealand-trained horses to contest the race have recorded two wins and a second.

New Zealand trainers are usually reluctant to take on the top Australian juveniles and only four Kiwi-trained horses have tackled the Sires’ Produce in the last 30 years.

However, the step up to 1400m has helped ensure that they have been more than competitive. Tristalove (1993) and Alf (1998) both won the race for Dave and Paul O’Sullivan and Lance O’Sullivan and Andrew Scott produced Summer Passage to run second, splitting Invader and Trapeze Artist, two years ago.

The only other New Zealand runner over that period was Batavian, who was unplaced in 1996. Batavian had been unbeaten in five two-year-old starts in New Zealand and had already shown he could measure up in Sydney by finishing third in the Todman and fifth in the Golden Slipper.

Probabeel has beaten her talented stablemate Yourdeel the two times they have met and was stunning when easily winning the Karaka Million.

A heavy track was against her when she made her Sydney debut in the Magic Night Stakes (1200m) at Rosehill and after being 14th at the 400m, she made ground solidly to finish sixth, 3.7 lengths behind the subsequent Golden Slipper winner Kiamichi.

She meets a strong field this weekend but will be suited by 1400m around Royal Randwick.

Kiamichi will be a rival again and three of the first four placegetters in the Golden will tackle the Sires’, as will Tenley, who was unbeaten prior to failing in the Slipper. Bellevue Hill bypassed the Slipper but has already won over 1400m and Castelvecchio, a son of Dundeel, looks well suited to the distance.

Probabeel will be ridden by Opie Bosson and is trained by Jamie Richards, who will have runners in three Group I races this weekend.

Bosson and Richards will also combine with In A Twinkling in the A$2 million Australian Derby at Randwick and Our Abbadean will represent the stable in the Fiber Fresh NZ Thoroughbred Breeders’ Stakes at Te Aroha on Saturday.

Richards has had a spectacular season, with seven Group I wins, a figure rarely achieved by a New Zealand stable.

Savabeel, the sire of Probabeel, will be represented in four Group I races this weekend. Remarkably, the Waikato Stud stallion will provide six - Supera, Nicoletta, Concert Hall, Sandrine, Hasahalo and The Real Beel – of the 11 runners in the Breeders’ Stakes at Te Aroha.

The Chosen One and Twinspier will fly the Savabeel flag in the Australian Derby and Shillelagh will tackle the A$3 million Doncaster Mile.